It's an interesting question. Is there more money trying to get increases from current donors or new gifts from previous non-donors? I want to argue for the former.
But the first thought you have is obvious: aren't there about a thousand new non-donors produced every year that will end up having a pretty high GPR (Giving Potential Rating)? Yes, sort of. Granted, many of these individuals who will give once they get their feet on the ground (the only group of people you actually trust when such topics arise) will already have given Senior Gifts or the like. Let's not consider these people. They have a really high chance of being part of the fan club.
This is one kind of non-donor. The other kind strikes demoralization into the hearts of callers. You wish they'd have said "no phone" years ago. Instead we call them every year, even though they haven't given in the fifteen years since graduation. You want to say, "Look, calling you every year is a waste of time. If you're not going to give, just leave me alone." There is something to this situation, but let's save it for another post.
Usually, these new fish takes themselves off of the list because, after a few years, they get tired of the calls. But what about the alums who gave a couple times after graduation and haven't given in thirteen years. Their GPR is about as low as the woman above. That's going to be a pretty low GPR (once we get it up). Meanwhile, someone who's been giving somewhat consistently has a much higher GPR. He is very much inclined to remain a part of the fan club and give his thirty bucks a year.
But how much is it worth to ask for an increase? Well, he could say 'no'. Or, worse, he could be offended and not give. What if he never gives again? Then, he's probably not much of a fan. Small increases should work. To ensure that such offense is not taken, let's use the Tip rule. Fifteen percent. Twenty if he sounds happy. Ten if he's...you know.
Don't get it twisted. New club members are great. Adding potentially excited individuals to our group of alumni who appreciate the university experience is great. It's amazing. But strengthening the core is better. It makes for a stronger tribe and, probably, more money. The big dough lies in increasing gifts from current donors, getting them a little more enthused with a little more reason to be happy. It's there: we just need to grab a hold of it.
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